Framework for Incorporating Risk in Project Scheduling Using Pert Paradigm

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Author(s) Oliver E. Charles-Owaba | Adepeju A. Opaleye
Pages 887-898
Volume 6
Issue 8
Date August, 2017
Keywords Statistical Risk, Project Activity Scheduling, Risk Analysis, Risk-Incorporated Schedule

Schedule time overrun, a perennial indicator of project failures, has posed intractable challenge to project managers. Though procedures for project scheduling are rife, the problem of accurately determining project times persists. Numerous unforeseen activity-related difficulties during execution have resulted in poor activity duration estimates. Consequently, risk analysis has now become an attractive component of project scheduling. However, existing definitions of risk are yet to provide a basis for quantifying observed data based risk values. In this paper, a theoretical framework for quantifying risk is suggested for activities scheduling using the definition that statistical risk is a “chance” that some deleterious events may occur against plan. Adopting the PERT paradigm, historical/field data-based features for estimating risk and risk-incorporated activity duration were proposed. Combining with a model for identifying risky activities, a procedure for deriving a set of risk-free and risk-incorporated project schedules for more effective time management in risky business environment was suggested, illustrated and evaluated

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