Multi-Model Projections of Temperature and Rainfall under Representative Concentration Pathways in Zimbabwe

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Author(s) J. Masanganise | T.W. Mapuwei | M. Magodora | K. Basira
Pages 229-240
Volume 3
Issue 4
Date April, 2014
Keywords analysis of variance, climate change, emission scenario, multi-model ensemble
Abstract

We describe climate changes (temperature and rainfall) by mid-century in Zimbabwe based on projections of 10 global climate models using the newly developed Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs.) We used a multi-model ensemble of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate model outputs for the mid-century (2040-2070) period relative to the 1980-2010 baseline. The projections were based on the moderate (RCP4.5) emission scenario and the highest (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Projected time series of monthly minimum and maximum temperature indicated a warmer climate that was consistent across all models. The models showed a large spread of rainfall change projections under both scenarios, however there was a high level of agreement in the direction of rainfall change by almost all models in some months. Model convergence was assessed using probability density functions (PDFs) to establish the consistency in predictions from the ensemble. The shapes of PDFs for temperature showed that the 10 models predicted similar trends while those of rainfall showed that models only agreed at the extremes of the distribution. We performed an analysis of variance (ANOVA) test at 5 % level of significance to quantify the level of consistency in predictions. Results of ANOVA indicated significant (p = 0.000) differences among the 10 models in predicting minimum and maximum temperature. The results also showed significant differences between the two emission scenarios. For rainfall, there were significant (p = 0.000) differences between the 10 models but there were no significant (p = 0.531) differences between the two emission scenarios.

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