Gravitational Atmospheric Tidal Potentials as Factors in Rainfall Modeling

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Author(s) Gachari F. | Mulati D. M. | Mutuku J. N.
Pages 446-452
Volume 2
Issue 6
Date June, 2013
Keywords rainfall model, atmospheric tidal potentials, rainfall projection in Kenya.
Abstract

We present a predictive rainfall model based on fitting a Generalized Linear Model on monthly rainfall amounts with factors and covariates that determine the occurrence and persistence of the gravitational atmospheric tide state. The model demonstrates high skill while estimating monthly amounts by achieving a correlation coefficient above 0.7 between the estimates and the measurements. Model estimates of annual total for the period 1901 to 2020 indicate that the model may not only be used to estimate historical values of rainfall but also predict monthly rainfall amounts. The advantage of atmospheric tidal factors and their derivatives is that their future values are obtained accurately in advance.

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